If it is plugged up, but turned off would lightening still be likely to fry it?
Yes, because a lightning strike generally "runs in" to a home's electrical system on the neutral wire, not the hot wire. Per the National Electrical Code, "the neutral conductor is to be connected directly to each device, and never switched or fused." Even if it were switched, the small gap between the switch contacts isn't much of a challenge for a direct lightning strike on an electrical system.
Add to that the fact that most every electrical device we own these days uses highly static discharge-sensitive semiconductors throughout its circuitry, as well as switchmode power supplies that are much more easily toasted by electrical surges (much less lightning strikes!) than old-school linear power supplies.